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The centerpiece of the symposium - in the eyes of both the markets and the media - is the session with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”). This year was Chairman Powell’s eighth and final speech at the conference.

The media coverage has largely focused on a single statement which, supposedly, hints at the possibility of an upcoming rate cut. The precise words used were, “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.

Markets reacted strongly to this wording,

 with the likelihood of a September rate cut increasing from 75% to nearly 90%.

Powell’s 21-minute speech was a dense, and somewhat opaque, reflection of the current state of disorientation in which the Fed, and most market commentators, find themselves.

Powell noted that the labor market is in a ‘curious’ state of balance. Hiring has slowed, but so too has demand, meaning that the labor market is still stable.

However, he believes that this balance is precarious, and recessionary risks are mounting. Tariffs may keep inflation high, while restrictive immigration may keep employment tight, 

potentially creating a stagflationary risk for the Fed.

The Fed's new strategic framework, formalized in its latest five-year review, shows a departure from its previous strategy, formed in an era of low-interest rates, slow growth and potential deflations.

The committee is officially moving back towards targeting 2% inflation (as opposed to targeting an 

 of 2%), and aiming for a balanced labor market. Powell acknowledged that the neutral rate may well have moved higher in the post-pandemic era. The current, relatively high rate of borrowing gives the Fed flexibility to move in either direction.

Finally, he explicitly disavowed the concept of a “preset” course, reiterating the need for data-dependent decision making, a concept with which Fed followers will by now be highly familiar.

One of the most notable observations of the Powell speech was the distinction drawn between cyclical and structural changes. His point was twofold: firstly, it is difficult to know if a trend is cyclical or structural.

Second, and equally importantly, the Fed’s power is largely confined to the cyclical realm. By implication, an era of structural change is one in which the Fed must react to rather than set the trend, or even predict it.

The theme of the conference as a whole was ‘Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy’. The 18 other speakers largely focused on the more important, longer-term structural changes such as demographic, fiscal, and technological developments.

For example, declining fertility rates and the resulting ageing populations have the effect of increasing demand for assets, while adding to the fiscal burden on governments in the form of higher entitlements.

On the other hand, the rapid development of AI has the potential to increase productivity and potentially provide the growth to offset fiscal strain, especially if (as suggested) it leads not to a displacement of labor but a reallocation of jobs.

In our opinion, it is these structural trends, rather than the comparative minutiae such as Fed committee appointments and/or firings, that investors should focus on.

Investing is a long-term game, and focusing on long-term trends provides the surest mainstay against the short-term panics and preoccupations that blow too many off course.

Jackson Hole Symposium 2025: What You Need To Know

The past six months have done little to disconfirm this. Tariff negotiations, nuclear tensions, concerns over sovereign debt, and the beginning of European re-armament, all combine to form a picture of a world further degenerating from orderly globalisation to chaotic multi-polarity.

We’ve gathered mid-year insights from 10 global financial institutions, including banks such as JP Morgan and Barclays, as well as specialised asset managers such as KKR and Carlyle, and synthesized their findings in this article.

Our aim is not a comprehensive rehearsal of their various, sometimes conflicting theses, but to extract the common strands and weave them into a workable narrative, which investors can use to reflect and regroup as the second half of the year comes rushing towards us.

Bidding Farewell to the “Ancien Régime”

As already noted, the pre-pandemic world is no more. As many, if not most, financial professionals have this former world and its assumptions as their baseline (and some may be vainly hoping for its return), it is worth beginning by defining this ‘ancien régime’ we have lost.

Blackrock uses the term ‘macro anchors’ to describe the foundations of the old regime: stable inflation, predictable growth, fiscal discipline, and confidence in US assets.

 What we have instead, according to HSBC, is heightened policy uncertainty, elevated inflation, and the geopolitical realignment of trade, capital, and growth.

The chart below shows the fundamental problem for the stock market. Equities are more sensitive to the macro environment than they were before, blurring the lines between investing and geopolitics.

Now that heightened volatility is structural rather than exceptional, we need to reassess the playbook that has served investors so well during the prior two decades following the Global Financial Crisis.

We can no longer expect asset class returns to remain faithful to long-term averages. Nor can we rely on the calm economic backdrop, that made it possible to generate attractive returns passively through index-based investing in public stocks and bonds.

The longer-term effect of tariffs (and indeed the near-term effects) are unknown, but the initial market reaction to the Liberation Day announcements in April 2025 showed that the stock-bond correlation, which has turned positive since the pandemic (see chart below), can no longer be relied upon as a straightforward route to diversification in a crisis (more on this further below).

The US remains dominant in global finance, as the country with the largest and deepest financial markets, the number one reserve currency, and the main transaction currency.

As a result, the majority of commentary and market scrutiny is focused on its continued economic health.

Much of the “hard” US economic data (such as GDP growth, inflation, and corporate profitability) remains benign.

 Furthermore, after a difficult first four months of the year, markets more broadly have recovered since April, with particularly impressive growth in Europe, China, and Japan.

While the rise of gold and the accompanying pressure on the dollar could be seen as a warning sign for US dominance, it is also plausible that these are merely indicators of tariff-driven anxiety and, therefore, likely to be temporary.

While there may be differences in opinion as to the future of the globe’s economic equilibrium and its new center of gravity, no one claims to know for sure. History does not always follow a rational path, and the future is unlikely to do so either.

That said, the one thing we can be certain about is heightened uncertainty. And in this light, there are various things investors can do to update their approach.

HSBC summed up the new approach as ‘granular, global and adaptive’.

 means looking closely at sectors and companies themselves to select for quality and insulation from headwinds. For example, prioritizing companies with strong balance sheets ahead of a stagflationary environment, or focusing on industries least exposed to tariff fallout (cable/telecom, healthcare, utilities/power

More positively, it could mean getting ahead of the market in areas that have been overlooked in the furore of the trade wars, such as AI

 or the energy infrastructure needed to undergird its expansion. KKR points out that a frothier environment naturally leads markets to misprice complexity, leaving open goals for methodical investors.

 means reducing exposure to concentration in any particular market, such as US stocks, which currently account for 70 cents in every dollar that flows into public equities worldwide.

 Within the S&P 500 itself, the so-called Mag7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) account for nearly one third of market capitalization.

Some commentators pointed to heightened defense spending in Europe, where the EU nations have recently committed to 5% of GDP, the return of inflation in Japan (where investors are rotating out of cash into stocks), and fiscal stimulus in China as definitive areas of potential ex-US outperformance.

 is a more nuanced word, but perhaps the most important of the three. At a basic level, it means adopting not merely an active approach, but a proactive one - expecting the ground to move and being willing to change strategy.

A more aggressive interpretation of the word ‘adaptive’ could be what KKR refers to as ‘making your own luck’, or in other words, finding assets where one can influence the outcome, rather than simply being exposed to it. This dovetails with another important theme emphasized by several of the reports, which is the need for diversification through private markets.

Private markets, which include private equity, private debt, real estate, and infrastructure, are a growing force in global finance, and for good reason.

Companies are staying private for longer, thanks to the increased confidentiality and freedom this allows them.

 Meanwhile, governments are seeking private capital to fund much-needed infrastructure projects that cannot be funded within already over-levered budgets.

For investors, investing in private enterprises has many advantages as well. In the first place, it widens the investing landscape. The number of US companies backed by private capital is more than double that in the public markets.

 This level of choice makes it possible to be more targeted and strategic in selecting one’s exposure to volatility-proof trends.

Amongst its many benefits, private markets investing also offers the increasingly rare and vital commodity: diversification. Nearly three-quarters of public market returns are directly attributable to swings in the broader market

, which dulls the effect of prudent selection. Private markets are naturally more insulated from market gyrations.

The additional level of control afforded by private markets is increasingly believed to be the source of their superior returns.

The private market premium is estimated to range from 50 basis points to 500 basis points, depending on the asset itself (the chart above represents a selection). Various studies have shown that adding a 10%-20% allocation to a standard retirement portfolio can materially improve returns without increasing risk.

In an age of heightened uncertainty, this, - one could say, is worth more than gold.

Much of the financial commentary one reads is, naturally, concerned with the task of predicting the future. While understandable, it is also impossible, and not where the focus of a prudent investor should lie.

There is, however, a positive lesson we can draw from amid the ever-changing speculation, and that is that a more volatile, uncertain environment is only a danger to a passive investor. 

Volatility creates dislocations between price and value. 

To an active, informed investor, this is actually better than a period of predictable calm, in which the rising tide lifts all boats together.

In the Barclays report, we find another level-headed observation that provides reason for optimism: market performance is ultimately driven by long-term economic growth, which is in turn driven by technological advances and ingenuity.

As the blistering pace of progress in AI, particularly Large Language Models (LLM), shows, neither of these is likely to disappear, even if the economy is troubled in the near term.

Successful investing is a question of character as much as, or maybe more than, intellect. And definitely not clairvoyance.

Where Do We Go From Here? | Mid-Year Outlook 2025

More women are stepping forward with a clear interest in managing their wealth and shaping their financial future. According to the UBS report “Women and Investing: Reimagining Wealth Advice”, which surveyed women across MENA to understand how they approach investment, advice, and long-term planning, 62% of women expressed a desire to learn more about investing. Nearly four in ten are already exploring private markets, which is an encouraging sign that the appetite for asset classes beyond traditional vehicles is growing.

This shift shows that women are becoming more deliberate in how they invest. Rather than defaulting to conventional paths, women are increasingly seeking strategies that balance long-term growth with resilience. What many still lack, however, is access to the kind of structured, personalized guidance that turns interest into action, particularly when it comes to asset classes like private equity, private credit, and real assets that require deeper understanding and specialized access.

Bridging the Gap Between Interest and Action

As more women seek to shape their financial future, one thing is clear: the interest is there, but the pathway isn’t always visible. While 62% of women in the region want to learn how to invest, fewer than half rate their investment knowledge as medium or high. Many still turn first to informal sources, like family, friends, or online content, before engaging with professional advisors. Nearly half also cite limited access to financial education as a key barrier.

This disconnect points to an ecosystem that hasn’t yet adapted to meet the evolving needs of women investors. Cultural norms, lack of tailored tools, and insufficient exposure to strategic financial planning are just some of the factors holding back deeper engagement, not a lack of potential or ambition.

Encouragingly, that’s beginning to change. Family businesses are gradually involving daughters and female relatives in governance and succession. And in markets like Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030 is not only opening new economic doors but also normalizing women’s participation in investment decisions, both as inheritors and as independent wealth owners.

Despite rising interest and wealth ownership, many women continue to face challenges that limit full participation in investment decision-making. According to the UBS report, key barriers include:

Redefining What Women Want from Wealth Partners

As women gain financial influence, they’re also reshaping expectations of what an advisor should be. It’s not about flashy products or superficial campaigns; it’s about meaningful partnerships grounded in trust, transparency, and long-term alignment.

Many women want more than just portfolio performance. They want to understand how their investments connect to their values, support their goals, and contribute to something bigger. According to UBS, nearly 70% of women would invest in women-led businesses if they had access to them, which is a clear indication that purpose matters.

What’s often missing isn’t willingness, but the right channels, tools, and conversations. Advisors who can meet women where they are, building on what they already know and offering advice that truly fits their goals, have an opportunity to build deeper, more enduring relationships.

Turning Momentum into Meaningful Progress

At The Family Office, we’ve seen this shift unfold up close. For over two decades, we’ve worked with clients across the region, including women who manage family wealth, plan for their children’s future, or build lasting legacies through entrepreneurship. Our role goes beyond managing capital. It’s about helping clients gain clarity, confidence, and control over their financial journey, no matter their background or starting point.

We understand that many women are not looking for just financial returns; they’re seeking trusted relationships, purposeful strategies, and tools that help them take charge of their financial journey. For those navigating limited access to advice, unfamiliarity with private markets, or low confidence in financial planning, we’ve built an approach that addresses these exact needs.

This commitment led to the development of our digital solutions, designed to give investors the tools to define their financial goals, track their progress, and access private market opportunities once limited to institutions. It reflects a new era of wealth management, one that responds to investors' changing needs and helps turn ambition into action.

As the region enters a period of historic intergenerational wealth transfer, the rise of women as wealth owners and decision-makers will only accelerate. The opportunity now is not just to preserve wealth, but to grow it with purpose. That requires thoughtful guidance, access to the right opportunities, and relationships built on alignment, not assumptions.

Women have always shaped the financial story, sometimes quietly, often behind the scenes. Today, they’re taking their place at the forefront. Not as a passing trend, but as a permanent force in the future of wealth.

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