Highlights:
Both ISM manufacturing and services contracted in July, with levels below 50.
Four assumptions have been driving asset prices as the year progressed:
- Likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”), with an almost 100% probability of a cut in the September meeting
- Inflation is slowly moderating
- Economic resilience appears to remain intact
- Noticeable shift in the artificial intelligence sector beyond many of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks
The core consumer price index (CPI) released in July came in at 3.3% for June, down from 3.4% in May, indicating a continued decline in inflation.
Disappointing earnings reports from Tesla and Google have contributed to the downward pressure on many high-tech stocks.
The S&P 500 index was flat in July and the NASDAQ index declined by 3.3%, while the Russell 2000 rose by 9.5%.
In today’s environment, investors should incorporate alternative investments into their portfolios, moving beyond the traditional 60/40 model.
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