Jul 24, 2023|Market Recap- 3 min
China’s recovery has been weak, while the fallout from the failure of Signature Bank and others has been modest.
Artificial intelligence-related equities, particularly the big seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta), accounted for a significant portion of the S&P 500 gains.
Inflation remains elevated in the United Kingdom and Europe, while decreasing in the US. Monetary tightening has occurred, and different central banks have different approaches to stimulating or tightening their economies.
Contrary to expectations, a recession has been delayed, with two quarters of positive growth in the US. But the economy is slowing, while the labor market is tightening.
Bankruptcies are beginning to appear, leading to wider spreads between treasuries and corporate bonds.
Leading economic indicators have been down for 14 months. An inverted yield curve, now at ‑0.85%, has predicted a recession historically.
The sharp interest rate increases of the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) may have a lagged effect on the economy, leading to a potential slowdown.
Volatility is low in equities but elevated in bonds, indicating complacency in the market.
While growth has been dominant, diversifying into value and defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples is recommended.
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