In Q1 2026, the S&P 500 declined by approximately 4.6% and the Nasdaq by roughly 7%, while the Russell 2000 rose by nearly 1%, reflecting a broader rotation within equity markets into sectors such as financials, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Gold rose 7% in Q1 but has come under pressure due to rising interest rates, investor liquidations to raise cash, and profit-taking by commodity trading advisors. Gold is currently down approximately 13% from its all-time record high.
U.S. GDP growth decelerated sharply, from 4.4% in Q3 2025 to a final estimate of 0.5% in Q4 2025. Early projections for Q1 2026 point to growth in the 1.0–1.5% range.
Inflation remains low but is rising, with the Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady through year-end and the possibility of rate increases rather than cuts.
Key macro risks to monitor include a potential technology sector bubble, elevated government debt, reflation pressures, geopolitical developments, and the possibility of deglobalization and a breakdown in global trade.
At The Family Office, we have shifted our recommended allocation from a traditional 60/40 model to a 60/20/20 framework (60% equities, 20% fixed income or liquidity, 20% alternatives).
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