Geopolitical uncertainty dominated the month, with ongoing conflict escalation fears, Strait of Hormuz disruptions affecting 20% of global oil and gas flows, and failed diplomatic off-ramp attempts driving sustained market volatility.
The Nasdaq index entered correction territory in March, down over 10% from its peak and 7.9% year to date. The S&P 500 index fell 5.4%, and the Russell 2000 index fell 5.3% year to date.
Markets are now pricing in a higher chance of interest rate increases across upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, with inflation forecasts rising as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects U.S. inflation at 4.2% for 2026.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil jumped from $67 to $97/barrel by month-end, and Brent crossed $111; meanwhile gold dropped 16%, falling from $5,230 to ~$4,375, pressured by higher rates and a stronger dollar.
Two-year Treasuries closed at 3.96%; 10-year Treasuries at 4.42%; and real 10-year yields reached 2.10%, prompting guidance toward Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and alternative investments.
At The Family Office, we recommend avoiding panic and large moves; favor small, deliberate shifts; seek managers experienced in dislocations, with specific opportunities highlighted in private credit, artificial intelligence/software, and business development companies (BDCs).
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