April was dominated by news flow around ceasefire talks, negotiations, and occasional armed conflict, which drove oil prices and, in turn, shaped inflation expectations, interest rates, and movements across equity, bond, currency, and gold markets.
Consumer inflation expectations moved higher. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showed one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%, up from 3.7% in March, while the 5-to-10-year outlook rose to 3.5% from 3.2%.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April FOMC meeting, with four dissents, an unusually large number. Markets currently price approximately a 95% probability of no change at the June 17th meeting, and a 76% probability of no change at the December year-end meeting.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 indices rose 10%, 15%, and 12.2% respectively for the month. Gold edged down 0.7% but remains up 6.7% year to date. Oil rose 3.6%, up 83% year to date.
At The Family Office, we maintain our recommended allocation framework of 60% equities, 20% liquidity and fixed income, and 20% alternatives, including private equity, private credit, and real estate.
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